News & Insights

Weekly FX Commentary May 18, 2021: USD gains proved fleeting

The US dollar rally against most currencies, that immediately followed the higher-than-expected US April core inflation number, proved short-lived as the greenback lost 0.6% to the euro, 0.3% to the British pound, 0.8% to the Swiss franc, and 0.3% to the renminbi since last Thursday’s close.

Continue Reading

Weekly FX Commentary May 12, 2021: Weakening USD amid inflation concerns

This week saw US inflation break even rates – measures of investors’ inflation expectations calculated as the spread between the yield on nominal US government bonds and the yield on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) – surge with the 5-year break even rate closing at 2.717% on Monday, a new high since 2008.

Continue Reading

Weekly FX Commentary May 4, 2021: Strong US spending data temporarily supports the USD

After losing ground against most currencies over the last few weeks, the US dollar regained strength last Friday, driven by higher-than-expected US personal income (+21.1% MoM in March; vs consensus: +20.3%; previous: -7%) and personal spending (+4.2% MoM in March; vs consensus: +4.1%; previous: -1%), as most Americans received stimulus checks under the American Rescue Plan Act. The greenback was also supported by Q1 GDP growth figures, which indicated a slightly faster-than-expected recovery at +6.4% QoQ annualized (vs consensus: +6.1%; previous: +4.3%).

Continue Reading

April 2021 Monthly Market Commentary: Desynchronized Economic Recovery

Desynchronized Economic Recovery: The global economy is bouncing back, entering a reflationary period characterized by accelerating growth as well as rising interest rates and inflation, although we believe the rise in inflation will be moderate as salaries are unlikely to increase in a more and more uberized world.

Continue Reading

USD: the bear is back! SystematicEdge Quarterly FX Commentary April 2021

We are often asked by our clients for our analysis on the FX market, which we have summarized in the latest SystematicEdge FX Commentary. In this document, our goal is to explain currency drivers and their trends set by fundamental economic data which can, however, be disrupted by geopolitical events. Click on the button below to read the full FX Commentary

Visit Site

SystematicEdge March 2021 Market Overview

MARKET CONTEXT: Biden’s New Deal: Stimulus for the World Economy. US President Biden has announced his US$2.25 trillion infrastructure plan, which comes on top of the recovery package of US$1.9 trillion. In total, stimulus measures announced since 2020 correspond to 25% of the US GDP.

Continue Reading